Netherlands Polls: Key Players and Main Issues in Early Election
Citizens in the Netherlands are preparing to possibly exchange the most rightwing administration in modern history with a more moderate and commonsense alliance during snap parliamentary elections scheduled for October 29.
The Situation and Its Significance
Snap general elections were triggered after the breakdown of the previous administration in June, when far-right figure the Freedom party leader withdrew his party from an increasingly fractious and largely ineffective governing alliance.
Wilders' party had achieved a surprising first place in the previous general election, and after prolonged talks formed a unstable multi-party conservative alliance with the BBB party, NSC party and liberal-conservative VVD.
Nevertheless, Wilders' government allies deemed him too controversial for the prime minister position, which was given to a former intelligence chief. Wilders, an immigration-skeptic polemicist who has lived under police protection for two decades, resorted to criticizing from the sidelines.
He ultimately triggered the coalition breakup on 3 June after his partners refused to implement a far-reaching comprehensive immigration restriction proposal that included using military forces to patrol borders, rejecting all asylum seekers, closing most asylum centers and repatriating all Syria nationals.
While backing of the PVV has declined, surveys suggest the far-right, anti-Islam party is once more projected to secure the largest representation in parliament. However, major Netherlands political parties have collectively rejected forming a government with Wilders.
No fewer than sixteen political groups are forecast to enter parliament, but no single party is projected to secure above approximately 20% of the vote. As usual, the next Dutch government, generally an significant force on the European and global scene, will emerge only after alliance talks that could last months.
Electoral Mechanics and Party Environment
The parliament contains 150 representatives in the Dutch parliament, meaning a government needs 76 seats to form a majority. No individual group typically achieves this, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments for more than a century.
Representatives are chosen every four years – sooner when administrations fail – through party-list system, based on an certified roster of candidates in a single, nationwide constituency: any political group that secures 0.67% of the vote is guaranteed a seat.
Similar to much of Europe, Netherlands political life have been marked in recent decades by a significant drop in backing of the historical ruling parties from the moderate right and left, whose share of the vote has decreased from over four-fifths in the eighties to barely two-fifths now.
In the Netherlands, this trend has been paralleled by a remarkable multiplication of minor political groups: 27 are running this time, including a senior citizens' party, a party for youth, a animal rights party, a basic income advocacy group, and a party for sport.
Key Players and Main Issues
In the lead is Wilders' PVV, forecast to lose up to eight of the thirty-seven mandates it secured last election. It advocates, among other measures, a complete freeze on refugee admissions, male Ukrainian refugees to be returned, the military to combat "urban violence", and an termination to "progressive education" in schools.
Two political groups, of the centre-right and centre-left, are neck-and-neck behind the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) dominated Netherlands government from the late 1970s to the early 90s, and once more in the early 2000s, but dropped to only five mandates in the previous poll.
However, under its young leader, its youthful rising star, who entered politics just recently, the party has bounced back with a electoral platform emphasizing the dire Dutch housing crisis and a promise of "reasonable, respectful governance". It is projected for up to twenty-six mandates.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an electoral alliance between the green party and the 80-year-old Dutch Labour party that is expected to become a complete unification, is on track to win a similar number, according to survey data.
Headed by the seasoned ex-EU official its leader, it has made building more new homes its primary focus, and has controversially included a net migration cap of between forty to sixty thousand people annually in its platform.
Three other parties look likely to be significant forces in the next legislature.
The liberal-progressive D66 is on course to gain seats – securing as many as seventeen, from its present nine – under its straight-talking youthful head, with a campaign focused on residential construction (it proposes to construct ten new urban centers) and an "individual basic benefit" for claimants.
The liberal-conservative VVD, the party of the former prime minister (now Nato chief), is forecast to slump to at most 16 seats from its present twenty-four, with its leader, accused of moving the group excessively rightward, blamed for its decrease. It is promising business tax cuts and reduced social benefits.
The populist, hardline conservative JA21 is a breakaway group from another far-right party – the once popular, now scandal-hit FvD – and appears to be profiting from an exodus of supporters from the three major rightwing parties. It could win up to 14 seats.
Besides the two main rightwing parties, both other partners in the unsuccessful previous government, the farmer and centrist parties, are projected to decline, with the centrist party not even guaranteed representation in parliament.
The primary concerns currently have been immigration, with several – occasionally aggressive – demonstrations against planned emergency reception centres for asylum seekers, the living expenses, and the perennial Dutch problem of accommodation (the nation is lacking four hundred thousand residences).
Potential New Government
Given the highly fragmented state of Dutch politics, what alliances are feasible is equally significant as who wins the election (or in this case, more likely second, since no significant group will partner with Wilders, who maintains he intends to head a minority administration).
Following the vote, MPs first designate an informateur, who seeks out potential partnerships. Once a workable alliance has been found, a formateur, usually the leader of the biggest prospective member, begins discussing the government program. This often requires months.
Multiple options look possible, typically including a combination of political groups from centre left and center right. The most likely, according to political analysts, include Christian Democrats and GreenLeft/Labour, plus Democrats 66 and several minor groups potentially including the conservative party.
